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Stocks rose yesterday but tech earnings disappoint and futures price lower today

🤖 #29: NFLX, NDX, SPX, UK & EU Futures, GBPUSD, USDAUD, Wheat prices

Disclaimer: this is not investment advice. Some of the content in this email is generated with the help of artificial intelligence. For the love of all things robotic, please do your own due diligence.

GM. Let’s see how bitcoin bot is doing so far…

Day 1 : it said to sell BTC at $30,049.49 - and it was right for the first half of the day, with prices falling c. 1.2% to lows around $29,700 on Tuesday, but then they picked back up again. Lesson: the take profit was outrageously high at 5%. Given this is a day trading strategy, I am going to ask the AI to price the take profit and stop loss based on ATR. I think we would’ve made a gain if I did this.

Day 2 (yesterday) ✔️: it said to buy BTC at $30,079.73 - and the price is currently $30,160. We’ll count that as a win.

I think there’s still a lot of work to do on the prompt for this bot, and I need to iron out some issues with the data I’m using (it’s delayed a few hours which is putting us at a big disadvantage). Expect more improvements to come.

— Reuben

P.S. I made a quick video on Twitter yesterday explaining how I use ChatGPT to analyse financial markets and draw graphs, you can check it out here if you’re interested.

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💸 In Today’s Newsletter

1. Market Movers

Highlighting the key events that are moving markets.

Stocks rise on low UK inflation and strong earnings, but tech disappoints; GBPUSD falls, USDAUD drops; wheat prices up due to Russia-Ukraine tensions.

2. Data Display

A Chart of the Day, sometimes original, mosttimes copied.

Big repricing on UK yields yesterday following the downside surprise to inflation. 2 year Gilt yields fell 25bps on the news.

3. Bitcoin Bot (Beta)

Using ChatGPT to decide whether to buy or sell bitcoin every day.

Today’s trade: Buy

Previous trades (win ✔️ or loss ❌): ❌ ✔️

Historic Trade win rate: 50%

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📰 Market Movers

  • Stocks were up yesterday after UK inflation came in lower than expected and a number of company earnings reports beat expectations, such as Elevance Health and Goldman Sachs. Most large banks and financial heavyweights have now reported earnings with nearly all beating expectations.

  • However, tech company earnings have just started and they are not as positive. Netflix missed on revenue (despite beating on EPS) and although Tesla beat on EPS and revenue, its gross profit margins were 18.2%, down from 19.3% in the first quarter and 29.1% a year earlier. Both stocks are down in pre-market trading and Nasdaq 100 futures are pricing 0.50% lower. S&P 500, UK, and EU futures are flat.

  • GBPUSD has fallen back down below 1.30 to 1.29 after inflation came in lower than expected yesterday and USDAUD has fallen 0.75% to 1.46 on strong domestic jobs data from Australia.

  • Wheat prices have risen 1% to hit a three-week high as Russia continues to attack Ukrainian ports and grain facilities, sparking concerns that it may have a long-term impact on global grain supply.

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📊 Data Display

After the UK CPI miss yesterday, the UK yield curve has repriced, easing from the highs reached last month

UK Yield Curve

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📈 Bitcoin Bot

Today’s suggested trade: Buy Bitcoin at $30,160

For the potential long (buy) position:

  • The stop loss would be set at about $29,926.28, which is approximately 0.775% lower than the current price.

  • The take profit would be set at around $30,393.76, which is approximately 0.775% higher than the current price.

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